Taobao Double Eleven 35 billion in 2013 and 60 billion in 2014: four major weapons

In an article at the end of October, "Taobao and Tmall can create another storm", the author predicted that Taobao's Double 11 sales in 2013 would exceed 30 billion. As far as the current situation is concerned, the prediction is accurate. For the sales of Taobao Double 11 in 2014, the figure given by the author is or reaches 60 billion yuan.

1. Taobao Double 11 60 billion in 2014

Since the birth of Taobao's "Double Eleven", the transaction amount of Double 11 over the years has increased from 50 million yuan → 936 million yuan→ 5.3 billion yuan→ 19.1 billion yuan → 35 billion yuan, and Luo Juan, an analyst at the Prospective Industry Research Institute, believes that Taobao's sales on Double 11 may reach 60 billion yuan in 2014.

As of the end of June 2013, the whole countryE-commerceThe transaction scale reached 4.35 trillion yuan, and its year-on-year growth rate was slightly lower than the 30.8% value in 2012, but it still maintained 24.3%, which shows that China's e-commerce market continues to maintain rapid growth.

Figure 1: China's e-commerce transaction scale from 2009 to 2012 (unit: trillion yuan)

In the first half of 2013, Taobao Bazaar still accounted for 95.1% of the entire C2C market, and Tmall Mall occupied China's B2C networkretail52.1% of the market (including platform and independent sales). Judging from the 2013 "Double Eleven" online shopping feast, Taobao and Tmall have a solid position in the e-commerce market.

The author can boldly estimate that it is possible for Taobao's "Double Eleven" transaction amount to ensure the growth rate in 2013 in 2014, but considering that the attractiveness of "Double Eleven" to consumers may decline, the author gives a conservative estimate of "60 billion" yuan. If Taobao grasps the four major directions of e-commerce in the future: user experience,Logistics, mobile e-commerce, social e-commerce, Taobao will usher in a new peak, and the "Double Eleven" will break 100 billion just around the corner.